Estimates of long-term operational energy and peak energy demand are essential for the sustainable development of new and existing urban areas. Improving energy efficiency and reducing demand in the built environment are also vital to urban development. Building the models required to simulate energy demand and consumption in existing facilities is time consuming and expensive. In addition, a great deal of uncertainty is inherent in these models because building energy use is primarily dictated by stochastic weather and building operations. The static energy models used by researchers fail to capture the variability of facility energy use.

This presentation will provide an overview of a reduced-order building energy model, based on International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards, that allows users to incorporate both stochastic variation and input parameter uncertainty into predictions of both long-term energy use and peak demand.  This tool provides a basis for probabilistic risk/benefit analysis of energy conservation measures, integration of renewable energy, and use of alternative fuels in urban environments.  Finally, we will discuss the integration of this model, including directions for future research, into the Lakeside demonstration project.